Explain why human-level performance is a weaker baseline for tasks like stock prediction compared to tasks like image labeling.
Question: Compare and contrast why human-level performance is a weaker baseline for tasks like stock prediction versus tasks where humans excel (like image labeling). Use the reasons given in the source in your explanation.
Sample answer: For tasks like stock prediction, humans are not good at the task itself, so their performance offers little useful benchmark. This creates three problems: labels are harder to obtain because human labelers cannot reliably identify the 'optimal' answer; human intuition is harder to rely on for diagnosing errors, since 'pretty much no one can predict the stock market'; and it is hard to know what error rate is optimal or reasonably achievable. In contrast, for tasks where humans excel, their performance gives a strong, informative benchmark for labels, intuition, and target error rates.
Key points:
- Labels are harder to obtain when humans aren't skilled at the task
- Human intuition is harder to count on for error diagnosis
- It is hard to know the optimal or reasonable desired error rate
- Contrast with tasks where humans perform well, giving a stronger benchmark
Rubric: Full credit: identifies all three problems (labels, intuition, optimal error rate) and explains why human skill at the task determines baseline usefulness. Partial credit: identifies one or two problems or lacks the comparison to human-strong tasks.
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References
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
Machine Learning Yearning (Deeplearning.ai)
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Machine Learning
Deep Learning
Supervised Learning
Dive into Deep Learning @ D2L
Data Science
Machine Learning Strategy
Machine Learning Yearning @ DeepLearning.AI
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