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First-Order and k-th Order Markov Models
When a sequence satisfies a Markov condition with , the data is characterized by a first-order Markov model. In this case, the factorization of the joint probability simplifies to a product of probabilities for each element given only the immediately preceding element: P(x_1, ldots, x_T) = P(x_1) prod_{t=2}^T P(x_t mid x_{t-1}). When , the data is characterized by a -order Markov model, which conditions on the previous time steps. For discrete data like language, a true Markov model estimates by counting the relative frequency of each word occurring in each context, allowing the most likely sequence to be computed efficiently using dynamic programming.
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Updated 2026-05-13
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