Glacial System Dynamics
The table below shows the size of a mountain glacier in the current year (Year t) and its projected size in the following year (Year t+1) under a constant climate scenario. This system is known to have two stable long-run states. Based on this data, identify the approximate location of the unstable tipping point and describe the two basins of attraction for this glacial system.
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Consider an environmental system, such as Arctic sea ice, which has two stable long-run states. A 'low-ice' state exists at 2 million kmĀ² of ice cover, and a 'high-ice' state exists at 10 million kmĀ² of ice cover. Between these two stable states is an unstable tipping point at 5 million kmĀ² of ice cover. If a temporary shock causes the sea ice cover to be 6 million kmĀ² in a given year, what will be the long-run trajectory of the ice cover, assuming no further shocks?
Glacial System Dynamics
Ecosystem State Dynamics
In an environmental system characterized by two stable long-run states (e.g., high-ice and low-ice) and a single unstable tipping point located between them, any initial state of the system that is less than the high-ice stable state will inevitably be drawn towards the low-ice stable state over time.