Causation

Impact of Credit Constraints on the Multiplier's Size Across the Business Cycle

The aggregate marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is determined by the relative shares of credit-constrained households, who have an MPC close to one, and unconstrained households, with an MPC near zero. During a recession, the proportion of credit-constrained households is expected to increase. This shift raises the economy-wide average MPC, which in turn increases the size of the multiplier.

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Updated 2025-10-05

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