The analysis showed increased R values as more year groups returned to school at the same time, and among the year groups, secondary school students caused the highest increase in R when they returned to school. Interestingly, none of the scenarios raised R above 1.

Differences in the impact of different school opening strategies on contact patterns and secondary infections

- “contact is most common between individuals of the same/similar ages”
- “greater contact between children and adults between the ages of 25 and 55” (reflective of contact between children and their parents)

Similarities in the impact of school opening strategies on contact patterns and secondary infections

Assumed that the level of mixing in the population was the same as during a strict lock-down, so that any changes in R are mainly caused by changes in school-age mixing. 

Smith College

Evaluated how the different school reopening strategies will alter:

- Contact pattern
- Secondary infections (arising from symptomatic index cases and infected index cases, which include undetectable, asymptomatic cases)
- Reproductive number (R) 
 - Clinical cases (due to the changes in community transmission) over the 42-day period (June 1st to July 22nd)




Assessment of Different School Opening Strategies in England


Keeling, M., Tildesley, M., Atkins, B., Penman, B., Southall, E., Guyver-Fletcher, G., Holmes, A., McKimm, H., Gorsich, E., Hill, E., Dyson, L. (2020). The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. medRxiv doi: 10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434v1

The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England

Impact of different school opening strategies on contact patterns and secondary infections in Midland region of England

East of England (c) and Midlands (d) saw greater increases in R for all school opening scenarios than London (a) and North East and Yorkshire (b). The ratio is "highly unlikely to increase R above 1" in regions (a) and (b) when all schools open. One reason may be that region (d) has the highest proportion of older teenagers in England.

Impact of different school opening strategies on R by regions in England

High relaxation of lock-down measures in the community leads to high R, and this exacerbates the impact of school reopening. There would be greater increases in clinical cases, ICU admissions, and deaths. On the other hand, in communities where R values remain below one, reopening schools would cause small increases in cases, ICU admissions, and deaths relative to communities where R value exceeds 1.

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