Assumed that the level of mixing in the population was the same as during a strict lock-down, so that any changes in R are mainly caused by changes in school-age mixing. 

Impact of different school opening strategies on contact patterns and secondary infections in Midland region of England

East of England (c) and Midlands (d) saw greater increases in R for all school opening scenarios than London (a) and North East and Yorkshire (b). The ratio is "highly unlikely to increase R above 1" in regions (a) and (b) when all schools open. One reason may be that region (d) has the highest proportion of older teenagers in England.

Impact of different school opening strategies on R by regions in England

High relaxation of lock-down measures in the community leads to high R, and this exacerbates the impact of school reopening. There would be greater increases in clinical cases, ICU admissions, and deaths. On the other hand, in communities where R values remain below one, reopening schools would cause small increases in cases, ICU admissions, and deaths relative to communities where R value exceeds 1.

Impact of different school opening strategies on clinical cases in England

Evaluated how the different school reopening strategies will alter:

- Contact pattern
- Secondary infections (arising from symptomatic index cases and infected index cases, which include undetectable, asymptomatic cases)
- Reproductive number (R) 
 - Clinical cases (due to the changes in community transmission) over the 42-day period (June 1st to July 22nd)




Smith College

Using a previously-developed age-dependent transmission model, which classifies population according to their current disease status (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered), and model parameters, researchers compared and contrasted the impacts of 8 different strategies of school opening on the spread of SARS-CoV-2. 

- years 0, 1, and 6 (full class sizes)
- years 0, 1, and 6 (half class sizes)
- all primary schools
- years 0, 1, 6, 10, and 12 (full class sizes)
- years 0, 1, 6, 10, and 12 (half class sizes)
- all primary schools, years 10 and 12
- all secondary schools
- all schools


Outcome Prediction of Open Schools in England Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic

Keeling, M., Tildesley, M., Atkins, B., Penman, B., Southall, E., Guyver-Fletcher, G., Holmes, A., McKimm, H., Gorsich, E., Hill, E., Dyson, L. (2020). The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. medRxiv doi: 10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434v1

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