Probability Formula for Speculation Rejection

An autoregressive model uses two probability distributions, a target distribution 'p' and a proposal distribution 'q', to evaluate potential future values. A condition for potentially rejecting a speculated value is met if its probability under distribution 'q' is greater than its probability under distribution 'p'.

Given the following data for four potential values, which value meets this condition?

In a speculative generation process, a model considers a potential future value. This value is evaluated using a target probability distribution, p, and a proposal probability distribution, q. After evaluation, the potential value is accepted and added to the final output sequence. Based only on the fact that the value was accepted, is the following statement true or false: 'The probability of the value under distribution q must have been less than or equal to its probability under distribution p.'

Speculative Decoding Scenario