Problem

Incommensurability of Catastrophic Costs in Economic Analysis

Standard cost-benefit analysis faces a significant challenge when dealing with potential catastrophic outcomes, such as human extinction. The immense negative value of such events is difficult to weigh against more familiar, everyday costs and benefits. This difficulty in comparing existential risks with routine trade-offs complicates decision-making, even when the probability of the catastrophe is considered to be very small.

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Updated 2026-05-02

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