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Inflation Dynamics Scenario

Imagine an economy where people form their expectations about future inflation by looking at the previous year's actual inflation rate. For the past several years, actual inflation has been stable at 2% per year. Now, a new government policy is implemented that causes the actual inflation rate to be consistently 1 percentage point higher than what people expect it to be. Assuming this new policy remains in effect, what will the actual inflation rate be three years after the policy is introduced? Explain your step-by-step reasoning.

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Updated 2025-10-07

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