Causation

Inflationary Consequences of Prioritizing Low Unemployment in a FlexNIT Economy

In a flexible exchange rate economy without an inflation target (FlexNIT), a policy choice to keep unemployment below its equilibrium level causes domestic inflation to rise above that of its trading partners. This presents policymakers with a dilemma: either allow international competitiveness to worsen, leading to fewer exports and more unemployment, or implement a loose monetary policy to induce currency depreciation. While depreciation maintains competitiveness, it also fuels further domestic inflation, creating a situation where the only way to sustain below-equilibrium unemployment is through a cycle of continuously rising inflation and an ever-accelerating depreciation of the nominal exchange rate.

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Updated 2025-08-09

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