Causation

Inflationary Process in a Boom with Positive Expected Inflation

During a business cycle upswing, when aggregate demand pushes unemployment below its equilibrium level, inflation rises above the expected rate. For instance, if unemployment falls to 4% while expected inflation is 3%, workers will demand a 5% nominal wage increase. This increase consists of 3% to compensate for expected inflation and an additional 2% real wage rise due to their stronger bargaining position on the wage-setting curve. To maintain their profit margins, firms pass on these higher costs by increasing prices by 5%. Consequently, the actual inflation rate becomes 5%, demonstrating how a boom can lead to higher-than-expected inflation.

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Updated 2025-08-15

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