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Initial Economic State Following an Inflation Shock in a Policy Simulation (Figure 4)

Figure 4 presents a set of four diagrams illustrating an economy's state immediately following a permanent inflation shock. The scenario is set over six periods, with the shock occurring in period 4 and a policy reaction expected in period 5. The first chart shows inflation, which is stable at 2% for the first four periods before jumping to 5% in period 5. In contrast, the second and third charts show that both GDP and the unemployment rate remain unaffected through period 5, holding steady at a value of 100 and just under 5%, respectively. The fourth chart shows the real interest rate was constant at 1% up to period 4, setting the stage for a central bank policy intervention in the subsequent period.

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Updated 2025-10-05

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