- If Rt > 1, epidemic is increasing at time t
- If Rt < 1, epidemic is decreasing at time t


Interpreting Instantaneous Reproduction Number (Rt)

1. The Lancet
2. American Journal of Epidemiology

References for Instantaneous Reproduction Number (Rt) of COVID-19  by Journal

- testing is necessary to track Rt 
- reducing lead time makes Rt more accurate
- adjust social controls as Rt increases above 1
- use data from other sources (like phone tracking) to improve 
   speed of case identification


Suggestions for using Rt from First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modeling impact assessment

China:
- China
- Wuhan, China
- Shenzen province
- Hunan province
- Shandong province
- Mainland China

 Instantaneous Reproduction Number (R$_t$) of COVID-19 by Geographic Region

Average number of secondary cases generated by one primary case with symptom onset at day t.

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

The reproductive/reproduction number of COVID-19 is estimated to be between 2 and 2.5 as of March 6, 2020. 

Reproductive Number of COVID-19

Leung, K., Wu, J., Liu, D., & Leung, G. (2020). First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment. The Lancet. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30746-7

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30746-7/fulltext

First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment.

1. International Journal of Infectious Diseases
2. The Lanclet: Infectious Diseases
3. Oxford Academic: Journal of Travel Medicine
4. American Journal of Epidemiology 
5. Emerging Infectious Diseases (CDC)
6. Epidemiology of Health
7. medRXiv: The Preprint Server for Health Sciences
8. Journal of Critical Medicine 
9. The New England Journal of Medicine

COVID-19 Reproductive Number References

 Instantaneous Reproduction Number (Rt) of COVID-19

- Asia
- Africa 
- North America
- South America
- Antarctica
- Europe
- Australia

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