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Latent Autoregressive Model

A latent autoregressive model addresses the challenge of variable-length histories by maintaining a hidden summary state, hth_t, of past observations. Instead of conditioning directly on a growing sequence of past inputs, the model predicts the current observation x^t\hat{x}_t based on the current summary state (x^t=P(xtht)\hat{x}_t = P(x_t \mid h_t)). Simultaneously, it updates the summary state using the previous state and the previous observation (ht=g(ht1,xt1)h_t = g(h_{t-1}, x_{t-1})). Because the state hth_t is never directly observed in the data, it is considered latent.

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Updated 2026-05-14

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