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Linear Regression for Sequence Prediction

A standard linear regression model can serve as a simple baseline for sequence prediction by treating the data as if it satisfies a τth\tau^{\textrm{th}}-order Markov condition. The model accepts a fixed-length window of the past τ\tau observations as its input feature vector and predicts the next value in the sequence. The model is trained using standard optimization (such as gradient descent) to minimize a regression loss like mean squared error. While simple, this approach establishes a baseline performance level using a linear combination of past observations before employing more complex sequence models.

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Updated 2026-06-13

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