Individual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. 

Based on key events and interventions, the epidemic was divided into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 - February 1, and February 2-18. 

They then compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups, and developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

In Wuhan, aggressive implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including a cordon sanitaire of the city, suspension of public transport, school, and most work, and cancellation of all public events reduced the reproductive number from 3.86 to 0.32 over a 5-week period 

Effects of Countermeasures on the Reproductive Number in Wuhan

Wang, Chaolong, et al. “Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China.” MedRxiv: the Preprint Server for Health Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593.

Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

Methods for Effects of Countermeasures on the Reproductive Number in Wuhan

Considerable countermeasures effectively controlled the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan. 

Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. 

Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and interventions.

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