Model Development and Statistical Analysis of Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis
Investigators used serial interval with a mean of 7.5 days and fit it with gamma distribution to estimate R0 at the beginning of the outbreak. They used bootstrap strategy to resample 1000 times to generate R0 distribution estimates. They projected plausible epidemic trajectories by looking at daily incidence, serial interval distribution, and R0. They also plotted cumulative incidence range for the upcoming 10 days.
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Model Development and Statistical Analysis of Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis