Concept

Model used in First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modeling impact assessment

  • susceptible - infected - recovered model
  • confirmed cases only: no accounting for underreporting
  • broken down into 4 stages
    1. interventions implemented; Rt=1
    2. interventions relaxed; Rt>1
    3. re-implementation of interventions; Rt=1
    4. more aggressive measures implemented to bring prevalence back to stage 1 levels
  • "“Let Ti be the duration of stage i and X the cumulative case count by the end of stage 4. We hypothesised that X increased exponentially with T2 (the duration of intervention relaxation)”

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Updated 2020-04-25

Tags

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Biomedical Sciences