Model used in First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modeling impact assessment
- susceptible - infected - recovered model
- confirmed cases only: no accounting for underreporting
- broken down into 4 stages
- interventions implemented; Rt=1
- interventions relaxed; Rt>1
- re-implementation of interventions; Rt=1
- more aggressive measures implemented to bring prevalence back to stage 1 levels
- "“Let Ti be the duration of stage i and X the cumulative case count by the end of stage 4. We hypothesised that X increased exponentially with T2 (the duration of intervention relaxation)”
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SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)
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Model used in First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modeling impact assessment
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