Definition

Natural Experiment

A natural experiment is an empirical study that investigates causal relationships by leveraging a naturally occurring event that affects one group (the treatment group) but not another (the control group). This external event—such as a change in laws, policies, or weather—mimics a controlled experiment. For the comparison to be valid, it is crucial that the difference in conditions was caused by a random or as-if random event, and not as a response to other factors that could also influence the outcome. By comparing the outcomes of the two groups, researchers can make causal inferences about the event's impact.

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Updated 2026-05-02

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