Policy Design for an Emissions Market
A government is establishing a new market-based system to limit industrial pollution. A fixed number of tradable 'emission allowances' will be created, with each allowance permitting the holder to emit one ton of a specific pollutant. Policymakers are debating how to set the initial total number of allowances (the 'cap').
- Proposal A: Set a very low cap from the start to force rapid and significant reductions in pollution.
- Proposal B: Set a higher, more lenient cap initially, with a pre-announced schedule to gradually lower the cap over the next decade.
Analyze the likely short-term impact of each proposal on the market price of an emission allowance and on the financial burden for the regulated industries. Explain your reasoning.
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