People are able to perceive the world in an organized and predictable manner by creating links between concepts where none exist.
The process of making patterns involves matching information already given or stored in the brain to make connections. 


Patterns

Related to imperfect or unknown information; occurs when there is discrepancy between one’s actual understanding and their desired understanding. 
- Conspiracy theories are at the midpoint between verifiability and unverifiability: the verifiable information is plausible, but also unfalsifiable enough to be unverifiable. Therefore, this creates uncertainty. 


Uncertainty

Individuals vary in their need for certainty. Various research has been done to study the measure between conspiracy theories and the need to reduce uncertainty. However, further research must be conducted to  better understand this construct. 
Example: Leman and Cinnirella’s (2013) found that people are more likely to follow their own suspicions about ambiguous information when looking for certainty. Compelling information has less of an impact.


Need to Reduce Uncertainty

Predictors of conspiracy theories include the tendency to perceive patterns, uncertainty, and the need to reduce uncertainty.

Kalamazoo College

Syracuse University

A belief that (powerful) others are engaging in conspiratorial behavior (e.g. controlling less powerful others) or attempting to cover up the truth. 

Conspiracy Theories

Anthony, A., & Moulding, R. (2019). Breaking the news: Belief in fake news and conspiracist beliefs. Australian journal of psychology, 71(2), 154-162.

Belief in fake news and conspiracist beliefs (Anthony & Moulding, 2019)

Verifiable beliefs are generally more associated with knowledge motivation, while unverifiable beliefs are more associated with social integration motivation. Both serve ego-defense functions.

The Verifiability Continuum

Predictors of Conspiracy Theories

A means used to measure belief in conspiracies. The GCB is comprised of 15 statements regarding one's belief in conspiratorial plots.

Generic Conspiracist Beliefs scale (GCB)

The term "conspiracy theory" is stigmatized and often used to deflect or dismiss claims as being outrageous. The term is rarely used in refrance to one's own beliefs and is more frequently used to paint opposing beliefs in a negative light.

Negative connotations of the term "Conspiracy Theory"

Although the term "conspiracy theory" often holds a negative connotation, the label may be appealing to some due to the prevalence and romanticization of conspiracy theories in popular media.

Positive connotations of the term "Conspiracy Theory"

A debunked conspiracy theory that emerged during the 2016 US presidential election. The theory states that powerful individuals (particularly Hillary Clinton and other democrat politicians) were holding children captive in a satanic sex-trafficking ring operating out of a D.C. Pizza restaurant. The theory gained enough traction that one individual was arrested for firing shots into the pizza restaurant.

The Pizza Gate Conspiracy

Anthony and Moudling (2019) list the following predictors: social alienation, powerlessness, a dangerous worldview, perceived benevolence of the world (Abalakina-Paap, Stephan, Craig, & Gregory, 1999), schizotypical personality traits (Barron et al., 2014) and political identity (Allcott & Gentzkow, 2017; Edelson et al., 2017; Oliver & Wood, 2014).

Predictors for Conspiracist Thinking

In this study, participants watched a conspiracy theory video and afterwards they were presented with one of two types of arguments (a third group was placed in control):
1. Factual anti-conspiracy argument.
2. Logic based anti-conspiracy argument.
Both experimental groups were less likely to believe the conspiracy theory presented in comparison to the control.
Of the two experimental conditions, the factual treatment was more effective. They suspect this is because it easier to understand when false facts are being presented than it is to recognize the issues in logic that might exist.

 Banas and Miller (2013): Types of arguments against conspiracy theories and their effectiveness

In this study, anti-conspiracy information did reduce the belief in the conspiracy, but it did not substantially affect the intentions of the participants to vaccinate their child. 

Jolley and Douglas (2014): The gap between changing beliefs and changing behavior

Participants who viewed conspiracy arguments then had stronger beliefs in the conspiracy theories, and this directly resulted in stronger beliefs of the danger of vaccines and decreased intention to vaccinate a fictional child.

The direct effect of the consumption of conspiracy materials on subsequent behavior

- People were more likely to intend to vaccinate their fictional child only when the anti-conspiracy argument came before the conspiracy, not after.
- People also reported lower beliefs in anti-vaccine conspiracy and were less likely to perceive vaccines to be dangerous in the anti-conspiracy followed by conspiracy condition.
- Once the conspiracy theory is shown first, the anti-conspiracy arguments are not effective at producing any of the above results.

The effect of order of argument presentation in combating conspiracy theories

- Knowledge 
- Ego-defense
- Social Integration

Why People May Believe Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy beliefs are difficult to dispel because any information contradicting their claim is seen as a lie or a cover-up.

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