Presenting Forecasts as Estimates and Ranges
Forecasting tools extrapolate from historical trends rather than establishing certainties, meaning they can fail to account for emerging external factors such as new local competitors or road closures. When incorporating forecasts into a business proposal, authors should treat them as estimates rather than established facts. To communicate this accurately, presenters should explicitly state the underlying assumptions of the model and provide a numerical range whenever possible (for example, stating that traffic is projected to increase between 12 and 18 percent).
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Recommendations Leaders Can Act On @ University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
Ch.2 Financial Rigor and Objection Defense - Recommendations Leaders Can Act On @ University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
Forecasts as Estimates and Ranges - Recommendations Leaders Can Act On @ University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
Learn After
Why do forecasting tools sometimes fail to predict business outcomes accurately?
When incorporating forecasts into a business proposal, authors should treat them as established facts to build credibility.
What fundamental context about a forecasting model must presenters explicitly state to communicate its projections accurately?
Discuss the limitations of relying solely on historical extrapolation in forecasts, using specific examples of external disruptions, and explain how business proposals should frame these projections.
Match each forecasting concept with its corresponding role or definition.
To accurately communicate estimation uncertainty, presenters should provide a numerical ___ whenever possible.
Order the steps for developing and presenting a forecast in a business proposal according to sound communication practices.
Analyze the developer's proposal presentation. Identify two major communication oversights the developer made when presenting the forecast, and state what specific elements should have been included instead.