Scenario modeling is the generation of projections of potential effects of future climate on disease trends. However, this may face some challenges because it is difficult to differentiate between climate change and natural variation in climate. Other limitations such as uncertainties in amount of greenhouse gases released each year and patterns of economic growth may change disease trends.

Scenario Modeling for Disease Trends

More research is needed to improve the assessment of scale and nature of climate risks. There are a lack of research on policy adaptation options in poorer regions. Also, evaluation of effectiveness of individual interventions and control programs, health impact assessment for climate adaptation and mitigation decisions such as irrigation schemes, change in water storage practice that could provide breeding sites, and surveillance and use of climate information to provide early warning of infectious disease epidemics are needed.


Risk Management on Potential Public Health Consequences Related to Climate Change

Some of the preventative measures that should be taken in response to possible public health consequences related to climate change are:
- Scenario modelling
- Research on risk management

University of California, Davis

Since climate change affects the abundance and survival of a vector and possibly increase the incidences of a disease, it will have many public health consequences such as:
- Time lag between changes to climate that makes a non-endemic area endemic, actual establishment of vector and pathogen, reports of cases.
- pathogen/vector evolution accelerates due to higher replication rate, thus  impacting disease emergence, re-emergence, and spread
- wide socioeconomic impacts, increase in health inequities, decline of  socioeconomic development
- Can overwhelm healthcare systems and other sectors like tourism



Public Health Consequences and Climate Change

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid, et al. “Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases: What Are the Implications for Public Health Research and Policy?” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, The Royal Society, 5 Apr. 2015, www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4342958/. 

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