Scenario modeling is the generation of projections of potential effects of future climate on disease trends. However, this may face some challenges because it is difficult to differentiate between climate change and natural variation in climate. Other limitations such as uncertainties in amount of greenhouse gases released each year and patterns of economic growth may change disease trends.

University of California, Davis

Some of the preventative measures that should be taken in response to possible public health consequences related to climate change are:
- Scenario modelling
- Research on risk management

Preventative Measures for Public Health Consequences Caused by Climate Change

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid, et al. “Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases: What Are the Implications for Public Health Research and Policy?” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, The Royal Society, 5 Apr. 2015, www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4342958/. 

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

Scenario Modeling for Disease Trends

More research is needed to improve the assessment of scale and nature of climate risks. There are a lack of research on policy adaptation options in poorer regions. Also, evaluation of effectiveness of individual interventions and control programs, health impact assessment for climate adaptation and mitigation decisions such as irrigation schemes, change in water storage practice that could provide breeding sites, and surveillance and use of climate information to provide early warning of infectious disease epidemics are needed.


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