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Recognizing Distribution Mismatch from Error Measurements

A distribution mismatch is likely when the model does very well on the training set, only slightly worse on other examples drawn from the same source, but performs much worse on a dev set that comes from a different source or setting. For example, a system with 0.9% training error, 1.4% error on a same-source holdout set, and 9.8% dev error shows a large gap that points to data mismatch rather than simple overfitting alone.

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Updated 2026-08-12

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