Theory

Reconciling the US Unemployment Puzzle: Combined Effects of Weaker Unions and Declining Competition

The economic puzzle of stable or falling US unemployment despite declining competition can be explained by the concurrent weakening of labor unions. In the WS-PS model, while reduced competition shifts the price-setting (PS) curve down (increasing unemployment), weaker union power shifts the wage-setting (WS) curve down (decreasing unemployment). As illustrated in the analysis of Figure 2.24, the combined effect can lead to an outcome where inequality increases, but the downward pressure on unemployment from the WS shift offsets or even surpasses the upward pressure from the PS shift. This can result in stable or even lower unemployment, aligning the model with empirical observations.

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Updated 2026-01-15

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