Estimated R: 4.028 (95% CI 4.010 - 4.046)

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

- Reproductive number Hubei (January 12 2020 to January 22 2020)
- Reproductive Number Hubei (as estimated by Epidemiology and Health)

Studies on COVID-19 Reproductive Number in Hubei, China

Choi, Sunhwa, and Moran Ki. “Estimating the Reproductive Number and the Outbreak Size of COVID-19 in Korea.” Epidemiology and Health, vol. 42, 12 Mar. 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020011.

Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Korea

Reproductive Number Hubei (as estimated by Epidemiology and Health)

Method: 	Mathematical model, dynamic compartmental model with population divided into five compartments: susceptible individuals, asymptomatic individuals during the incubation period, infectious individuals with symptoms, isolated individuals with treatment and recovered individuals 

Approaches: R$_0$ = β/αβ = mean person-to-person transmission rate/day in the absence of control interventions, using nonlinear least squares method to get its point estimateα = isolation rate = 6 

Estimate for R$_0$: 6.49 (95% CI 6.31 - 6.66)

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