Scientific Uncertainty on the Reversibility of Arctic Ice Loss
There is significant scientific uncertainty regarding whether the loss of Arctic summer sea ice can be reversed, even if global warming were to be halted or reversed. This raises the concern that the climate system may have already passed a 'point of no return,' beyond which the high-ice equilibrium cannot be restored.
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Figure 8.25: Decline of Arctic Summer Sea Ice
Ice-Albedo Positive Feedback
Figure 8.27: Environmental Dynamics, Multiple Equilibria, and the S-Shaped EDC
Ongoing Transition to a Low-Ice Arctic Equilibrium
Scientific Uncertainty on the Reversibility of Arctic Ice Loss
Consider two possible states for a large, ice-covered polar ocean. In 'State A', the ocean is almost completely covered by highly reflective ice, which bounces most sunlight back into space, keeping the region cold and preserving the ice. In 'State B', much of the ice has melted, exposing darker ocean water that absorbs sunlight, which in turn warms the water and causes even more ice to melt. What is the most critical difference in the underlying environmental dynamic between these two states?
Imagine a region of the Arctic Ocean that has experienced a significant reduction in its summer sea ice cover due to a period of unusually warm years. Arrange the following events into the correct causal sequence that describes the self-reinforcing cycle that could prevent the ice from recovering, even if temperatures returned to their previous average.
Critique of an Arctic Restoration Proposal
Evaluating a Policy Statement on Arctic Ice Recovery
Dynamics of Polar Ice Stability
Match each environmental component or dynamic with its correct description in the context of a large, ice-covered polar ocean system.
Statement: If the external factors causing initial warming were completely removed and global temperatures returned to their historical average, the extent of summer sea ice in the polar regions would naturally and rapidly return to its previous, larger state because the system's original stabilizing mechanisms would take over.
Persistent Ice Melt Scenario
A large, historically stable ice-covered lake on a fictional planet experiences a temporary increase in atmospheric dust from volcanic eruptions. This dust darkens the ice surface for several years. After the dust settles and the ice is white again, scientists observe that the lake's ice cover continues to shrink each summer, more than before the volcanic event, even though the planet's average temperature has returned to its previous level. Which of the following best explains why the lake's ice cover continues to shrink after the initial disturbance is gone?
Interpreting Climate Model Simulations for a Frozen Lake