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Vaccination as an Example of Counterfactual Reasoning
Many people suggest that "Vaccines kill" and use (often spurious) data to suggest that vaccines are dangerous. While an association may exist, that does not mean that a logical (or causal) link necessarily exists between vaccines and death. Counterfactual thinking can serve as a way to clarify this association. In the model given in the Book of Why, we see that 99 children (out of 1 million) die from the vaccination. Meanwhile, a counterfactual world in which there is no vaccination leads to 3,861 deaths. In other words, deaths are present in both scenarios, but there are many more deaths in the non-vaccine scenario, thus supporting the efficacy of vaccination.
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Updated 2020-07-09
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Data Science