Pearl notes that experience likely depends on education. If someone spends 4 years getting a college degree, then they will lose 4 years of potential experience. Thus for Carol and Bert, the example goes that Carol makes more money than Bert, and has a graduate degree, while Bert has a college degree.

The potential outcome model claims that Carol would make more money than Bert had she only had a college degree, because she would have had the same education and more experience than Bert.