The opposition has failed to unite around a single leader. As Venezuelan history and Chávez himself have demonstrated, Venezuelans are often best led by a “caudillo” figure. However, the opposition’s best answer to Maduro—Juan Guaidó—failed to organize a successful coup. As a result, Guaidó lost much of his support (including his position as leader of parliament), and Venezuelans became further disenchanted with politics, diminishing hopes that they would either lead their own revolution or trust another politician to lead them.

Lack of a Leader for a Venezuelan Revolution

If civil society is too repressed and disorganized to coordinate a revolution, then perhaps hope for Venezuelans lies in what opposition leaders can accomplish. The opposition has always been ideologically diverse, hampering its ability to unite against Maduro. Maduro has further divided the opposition through repressive tactics, such as by declaring certain parties illegal—some parties responded by boycotting such clearly unfree and unfair elections, whereas others saw a chance to expand their influence.

Wesleyan University

Unlike Lebanon, there has not been a coordinated revolution in Venezuela against the current regime. A variety of factors can explain this lack of a revolution, including the overwhelming nature of the current crisis, the continued popularity of Chavismo, a repressed civil society, the threat of military violence, and an uncoordinated opposition that has failed to unite the people against the government.

Explanations For a Lack of a Revolution in Venezuela

Jiménez, M. (2021). Contesting Autocracy: Repression and Opposition Coordination in Venezuela. Political Studies. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321721999975

Jiménez (2021)

The crisis in Venezuela is so severe that people are focused on basic survival, not on revolution. Hyperinflation, unemployment, and poverty are out of control, and there is a scarcity of basic goods. Rather than risking their lives in a violent revolution, most Venezuelans have preferred to focus on ensuring their basic survival, or have else fled the country by the millions.

The Overwhelming Nature of the Venezuelan Crisis

Chavismo has been supported by the military from the beginning. Chávez—a former military officer himself—took care to ensure the military’s loyalty by appointing officers to top state positions. Maduro—who lacks Chávez’s popularity—increasingly relies on the military to stay in power and has also rewarded officers with government positions. The result is a loyal military with much to lose—such as government positions and the corruption-fueled cash that comes with them—if Chavismo were to fall to revolution. 

Chavismo’s Loyal Military

A significant minority of people still support Maduro, or at the very least still support Chavismo. Although Maduro’s approval rating is in the 20s, that is fairly substantial support for a leader in a country with a 90% poverty rate. Both Chávez and Maduro took care to control the media and influence public opinion. As such, Maduro retains the support of hard-core supporters of Chavismo, who would oppose a revolution. For supporters of Chavismo, a revolution would mean betraying Chávez’s legacy and giving up on the future that he had promised.

Legacy of Chavismo and Public Support

Civil society has been increasingly repressed under Chavismo. Civil society organizations (CSOs) had little effect on Chávez’s policies because his governing style was personalistic, leaving little room for outside input. Furthermore, Chávez created communal councils that could only be approved by the President. These councils were mobilized to support Chávez and have often fought over funding. Finally, Maduro has been increasingly violent against dissidents, including utilizing security forces to torture and imprison them. 

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