The crisis in Venezuela is so severe that people are focused on basic survival, not on revolution. Hyperinflation, unemployment, and poverty are out of control, and there is a scarcity of basic goods. Rather than risking their lives in a violent revolution, most Venezuelans have preferred to focus on ensuring their basic survival, or have else fled the country by the millions.

The Overwhelming Nature of the Venezuelan Crisis

Chavismo has been supported by the military from the beginning. Chávez—a former military officer himself—took care to ensure the military’s loyalty by appointing officers to top state positions. Maduro—who lacks Chávez’s popularity—increasingly relies on the military to stay in power and has also rewarded officers with government positions. The result is a loyal military with much to lose—such as government positions and the corruption-fueled cash that comes with them—if Chavismo were to fall to revolution. 

Chavismo’s Loyal Military

A significant minority of people still support Maduro, or at the very least still support Chavismo. Although Maduro’s approval rating is in the 20s, that is fairly substantial support for a leader in a country with a 90% poverty rate. Both Chávez and Maduro took care to control the media and influence public opinion. As such, Maduro retains the support of hard-core supporters of Chavismo, who would oppose a revolution. For supporters of Chavismo, a revolution would mean betraying Chávez’s legacy and giving up on the future that he had promised.

Legacy of Chavismo and Public Support

Civil society has been increasingly repressed under Chavismo. Civil society organizations (CSOs) had little effect on Chávez’s policies because his governing style was personalistic, leaving little room for outside input. Furthermore, Chávez created communal councils that could only be approved by the President. These councils were mobilized to support Chávez and have often fought over funding. Finally, Maduro has been increasingly violent against dissidents, including utilizing security forces to torture and imprison them. 

Civil Society Repression Under Chavismo

If civil society is too repressed and disorganized to coordinate a revolution, then perhaps hope for Venezuelans lies in what opposition leaders can accomplish. The opposition has always been ideologically diverse, hampering its ability to unite against Maduro. Maduro has further divided the opposition through repressive tactics, such as by declaring certain parties illegal—some parties responded by boycotting such clearly unfree and unfair elections, whereas others saw a chance to expand their influence.

An Uncoordinated Opposition in Venezuela

Unlike Lebanon, there has not been a coordinated revolution in Venezuela against the current regime. A variety of factors can explain this lack of a revolution, including the overwhelming nature of the current crisis, the continued popularity of Chavismo, a repressed civil society, the threat of military violence, and an uncoordinated opposition that has failed to unite the people against the government.

Wesleyan University

The current crisis afflicting Venezuela involves a swath of economic problems, a refugee crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the intersecting set of issues, there has not yet been a revolution aimed at overthrowing Chavismo.

Present-Day Crisis Under Maduro

Over 90% of the population is in poverty. There is a lack of perishable food and an irregular supply of water. People have to ration electricity, and 15% of children are at risk of dying from malnutrition. US-imposed sanctions are making matters worse.

Current Economic Problems in Venezuela

The Venezuelan crisis has spilled over into neighboring countries as the result of a refugee crisis. Furthermore, international actors have taken interest in the crisis for political and economic reasons.

Regional and International Concerns Involving Venezuela

An already dangerous pandemic has been exacerbated by economic concerns. Electricity shortages have affected hospitals, with 57.3% of hospitals experiencing power outages and hospitals going without electricity for an average of about 15 days per month. Containment measures (such as stay-at-home orders) have been complicated by the desperate economic situation as impoverished Venezuelans rely on daily income to survive. These conditions have triggered over 1000 protests, though they have not developed into a full-fledged, united revolution yet.

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