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Discrepancy Between Expected Rate of Return and Nominal Interest Rate Due to Default Risk

The expected rate of return for a lender is not always the same as the nominal interest rate charged on a loan. When there is a probability of default, the expected return is calculated by factoring in this risk, which often results in a value lower than the interest rate. For instance, a loan portfolio with a 20% nominal interest rate might only have an 8% expected return if a 10% default rate is anticipated. The lender's actual rate of return only equals the interest rate in the ideal scenario where full repayment is guaranteed.

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Updated 2025-08-15

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