Concept

Dual Challenge of Higher Inflation and Unemployment from a Persistent Supply Shock

A persistent negative supply shock, one that does not quickly reverse, shifts the economy to a new, less favorable supply-side equilibrium. This new state presents a dual challenge: a higher inflation-stabilizing unemployment rate (NextSSEN'_ ext{SSE}) and an immediate increase in inflation caused by the shock at the initial level of employment. The economy is thus confronted with both rising prices and the need for higher unemployment to stabilize them.

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Updated 2025-08-15

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