Causation

Origin of the Policy Dilemma from a Negative Supply Shock

The policy dilemma following a negative supply shock originates from the economy's lack of an automatic adjustment mechanism. If output and employment are maintained at their initial levels after the shock, the economy does not immediately move to its new, lower-employment equilibrium (point C). Instead, it remains at the pre-shock employment level (moving to point B on the new price-setting curve), which opens a positive bargaining gap. This gap is inherently inflationary, causing the Phillips curve to shift upward and increasing the inflation rate, for instance, from a target of 2% to 4%.

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Updated 2025-10-05

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