Explain whether this pattern indicates an effective intervention according to the criteria of an interrupted time-series design, and justify your conclusion based on the observed short-term versus long-term trends of student absences.
Case context: An instructor tracks weekly student absences for six weeks, observing a high, stable rate of absences. In week seven, the instructor introduces a new policy: they begin publicly taking attendance at the start of each class. The instructor continues to track weekly absences for six more weeks. They observe that absences drop immediately in week seven but then gradually return to their high pre-treatment levels by week ten, showing no difference in the long-term average trend by the end of the study.
Question: Explain whether this pattern indicates an effective intervention according to the criteria of an interrupted time-series design, and justify your conclusion based on the observed short-term versus long-term trends of student absences.
Sample answer: This pattern indicates that the intervention was ineffective. Although there was an immediate drop in absences in the week the policy was introduced, the drop was not sustained. According to the criteria of an interrupted time-series design, an effective treatment must show an immediate and sustained drop. Because the long-term trend returned to the pre-treatment average, the intervention failed to produce a meaningful effect.
Key points:
- Conclude that the treatment was ineffective.
- Explain that the initial drop in absences was not sustained.
- Explain that the long-term average trend remained unchanged compared to pre-intervention levels.
Rubric: Answers must explain that the treatment was ineffective because the initial drop in absences was not sustained, and that the long-term average trend remained unchanged.
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Example of an Interrupted Time-Series Design with Nonequivalent Groups: Student Absences
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In the context of the student absence example using an interrupted time-series design, match each data pattern or event with the specific role it plays in evaluating the study's outcome.
A professor tracks student absences for five weeks, finding an average of 12 absences per week. She then begins publicly taking attendance every day. Over the next five weeks, the number of absences recorded per week are 11, 13, 12, 11, and 13. Based on the logic of an interrupted time-series design, the professor should conclude that the attendance-taking intervention was effective.
In an interrupted time-series design tracking student absences, arrange the following analytical steps in the logical order a researcher must take to determine if a new attendance-taking policy caused a meaningful reduction in absences.
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In the student absences study, if the average number of absences remains virtually unchanged after the instructor begins taking daily attendance, the intervention is concluded to have failed to produce a meaningful effect.
A professor concludes that taking daily attendance was effective because absences were lower in the first week, despite returning to their original average for the rest of the term. This professor's evaluation of the intervention is incorrect because they failed to demonstrate that the reduction in absences was _____.
A researcher conducts an interrupted time-series study on student absences. Match each researcher action or observation to the reason that action is necessary for drawing a valid conclusion from this design.
A researcher reviews the student absence data and finds that absences dropped sharply in the first week after the attendance policy began but gradually climbed back to pre-intervention levels by week five. Applying interrupted time-series reasoning, the researcher should classify this outcome as evidence of a _____ effect—not the sustained reduction required to conclude the treatment was meaningfully effective.
A peer reviewer is evaluating whether a student researcher's interrupted time-series study on absences provides sufficient evidence to support the causal claim that publicly taking attendance reduced absences. Arrange the following evaluative judgments in the order they should be made, from the most foundational prerequisite to the final overall verdict.
Based on the student absences example, identify the specific event that serves as the 'interruption' in the interrupted time-series design. Then, describe the two different post-interruption outcomes (effective vs. ineffective treatment) in terms of the pattern and trend of student absences.
Explain whether this pattern indicates an effective intervention according to the criteria of an interrupted time-series design, and justify your conclusion based on the observed short-term versus long-term trends of student absences.
A researcher is using an interrupted time-series design to study student absences in a psychology class. Before the treatment (introducing public attendance taking), they collect only a single measurement of absences from the week immediately prior. Apply your knowledge of this design's structure to explain why collecting only one pre-treatment measurement, instead of multiple measurements, compromises the validity of their conclusions.