Previous pandemics did not take into account how closure of schools would impact our healthcare work capacity (referring to healthcare workers who would have to miss work to take care of their children). Will the increased need for childcare increase net mortality? At what point will the strain on labour supply undo the benefits that school closures have?

• Approx 15% of healthcare workers (14.8-15.2 CI) are in need of child care during a school closure -Estimating that school closures bring a 15% reduction in COVID cases -Estimating a baseline mortality rate of 2%

-With these estimates, a 15% decrease in the health-care labour force would need to decrease the survival probability (per health-care worker lost) by 17.6% for school closure to increase cumulative mortality -If infection mortality rate increased from 2.00% to 2.35% in conjunction with a 15% reduction in healthcare labour, school closures would lead to more deaths than they prevent