Formula

Lender's Expected Payoff from a Risky Loan

When lending is risky, a lender's expected payoff is calculated by subtracting the loan's principal amount (LL) from the expected repayment. The expected repayment is determined by multiplying the total amount due upon successful repayment, (1+r)L(1 + r)L, by the probability of that repayment occurring. The formula is expressed as: expected pay-off=(probability of repayment×(1+r)L)L\text{expected pay-off} = (\text{probability of repayment} \times (1 + r)L) - L.

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Updated 2026-05-02

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