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Projecting the Potential Impact of COVID-19 School Closures on Academic Achievement: Results of different possible scenarios for learning gains during the 2019-2020 school year

  • Under all three COVID-19 projections, Partial Absenteeism, Full Absenteeism, and COVID Slide, students’ learning gains by the end of the 2019-2020 school year were projected to be lower than they would have been under typical conditions.
  • Under the Partial Absenteeism model, students were expected to begin the next school year with 60-87% of their typical learning gains
  • Under the COVID Slide model, students were expected to end the year (assuming the year ended in March) with 63-68% of their typical reading gains, but only 37-50% of their typical gains in mathematics.
  • Under the Full Absenteeism model, students were expected to have ended the school year with less than 30% of their typical learning gains in both math and reading.
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Updated 2021-04-18

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