The reproductive/reproduction number of COVID-19 is estimated to be between 2 and 2.5 as of March 6, 2020. 

Reproductive Number of COVID-19

- This model is a point process model that models the rate of infection over a period of time and allows for parametric and nonparametric estimates of the reproduction number.
- During this time, the reproduction number begins to change over time due to alterations in the public’s behavior
- Used to estimate extinction in the early stages of the pandemic.
- The data used in this model involved uses mortality numbers.
- They also used available data from California, New York and Indiana, to estimate the reproduction number and identify where they are in the timeline of the pandemic.
- These have been used for other diseases like Ebola and even other social interactions such as gang violence and emails, but it is still underutilized in the epidemiology field. 

Self-Exciting Branching Process Model for the COVID-19 Pandemic

The epidemiologic metric used to describe the transmissibility of an infectious agent by indicating the number of secondary cases one case is expected to produce at a most basic level.
An infectious disease outbreak is expected to continue if R0 is greater than 1 and discontinue if R0 is lesser than 1. 

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Transmission occurs when an infectious agent or pathogen exits its reservoir through a portal of exit, is carried to a portal of entry through a mode of transmission, and infects a susceptible host. 

Transmission of Infection

Delamater, P. L., Street, E. J., Leslie, T. F., Yang, Y. T., & Jacobsen, K. H. (2019). Complexity of the basic reproduction number (R0). Emerging infectious diseases, 25(1), 1.

Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0)

- Direct Transmission of Infection
- Indirect Transmission  of Infection 

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