1Cademy - Self-Exciting Branching Process Model for the COVID-19 Pandemic

Concept

Self-Exciting Branching Process Model for the COVID-19 Pandemic

This model is a point process model that models the rate of infection over a period of time and allows for parametric and nonparametric estimates of the reproduction number.
During this time, the reproduction number begins to change over time due to alterations in the public’s behavior
Used to estimate extinction in the early stages of the pandemic.
The data used in this model involved uses mortality numbers.
They also used available data from California, New York and Indiana, to estimate the reproduction number and identify where they are in the timeline of the pandemic.
These have been used for other diseases like Ebola and even other social interactions such as gang violence and emails, but it is still underutilized in the epidemiology field.