The model-interference system recreated the case and mortality time series for each age group and overall. However, case reporting rate was adjusted for. After, the epidemic peak for new infections occurred during the week of March 22,d for <45 year-olds and all ages combined, which coincided with public health interventions and closings.

Overall, the estimated cumulative infection rate was 15.8% (95% CrI: 11.4-24.4%).

The cumulative infection rate varies by age group, with the highest rates among 25-44 and 45-64 year-olds at 20.1% and 20.7%. Those <25 years had with lowest cumulative infection rate at 8%.

From March 1 – May 16, 2020, the crude CFR in NYC was 8.22%. After accounting for case reporting rates and the first three weeks when deaths were rarely yet occurring, the overall IFR estimate was 1.45% (95% CrI: 1.09-1.87%) from March 22-May 16.

The IFR by age group:

• <25: 0.011%
• 25-44: 0.12%
• 45-64: 0.94%
• 65-74: 4.67%
• 75+: 13.83%