Causation

Upward Shift of the Phillips Curve due to a Negative Supply Shock

A negative supply-side shock, such as a decrease in competition that allows firms to increase their markup, causes the entire Phillips curve to shift vertically upward. This occurs because, at any given level of employment, firms' pricing decisions add a larger profit margin on top of their costs, leading to a higher overall inflation rate. For instance, a 2% increase in the markup would shift the Phillips curve upward by 2 percentage points. This shift is distinct from changes caused by inflation expectations, as it can occur while expectations remain constant.

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Updated 2026-01-15

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