Using Government Bond Rates as a Proxy for Policy Interest Rates in Pre-Euro Spain and Germany
In the period before Spain and Germany adopted the euro in 1999, their monetary policies were less formalized than modern inflation-targeting regimes, lacking a single, clearly defined policy interest rate. To analyze their economies, economists use the interest rates on government bonds as a proxy. This is a valid approach because each government borrowed in its own currency (the peseta and the Deutsche Mark, respectively), which made these bonds effectively free of default risk and thus a good substitute for the policy rate.
0
1
Tags
Economics
Economy
Introduction to Macroeconomics Course
Ch.7 Macroeconomic policy in the global economy - The Economy 2.0 Macroeconomics @ CORE Econ
The Economy 2.0 Macroeconomics @ CORE Econ
CORE Econ
Social Science
Empirical Science
Science
Learn After
An economist is analyzing the monetary policy of a country during a historical period when it issued a significant portion of its government bonds in a foreign currency (e.g., U.S. dollars) instead of its own domestic currency. Why would the interest rate on these foreign-currency-denominated bonds be a poor proxy for the country's domestic policy interest rate?
In the pre-euro era, the interest rate on Spanish government bonds served as a valid proxy for Spain's policy interest rate. The primary reason for this validity is that the Spanish government had a strong reputation for fiscal responsibility, which minimized the perceived risk of default.
Evaluating Proxies for Monetary Policy
Choosing a Reliable Proxy for Historical Policy Rates
For each scenario describing a country's borrowing, match it with the correct assessment of whether its government bond rate is a good or poor proxy for its domestic policy interest rate.