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Case Study

Analyzing Strategic Behavior in a Bargaining Game

A researcher conducts an economic experiment where a 'Proposer' is given $100 and must offer a portion of it to a 'Responder'. If the Responder accepts, the money is split as proposed. If the Responder rejects, both receive nothing. The researcher first gathers data on how a specific group of Responders reacts to different offers, as shown in the table below. Later, when members of this same group act as Proposers, the researcher finds that the most frequent offer they make is 40% ($40).

Responder Rejection Probabilities:

  • Offer of 20% ($20): 70% chance of rejection
  • Offer of 30% ($30): 40% chance of rejection
  • Offer of 40% ($40): 10% chance of rejection

Based on this data, calculate the Proposer's expected payoff for each of the three offers listed. Then, explain what the alignment between the calculated payoff-maximizing offer and the observed most frequent offer suggests about the Proposers' strategy.

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Updated 2025-09-26

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