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Evaluate the scientific validity of the claim that a poll with a sample size of millions of people is guaranteed to be more accurate than a poll with a sample size of a few thousand. Support your evaluation using the outcome of the 1936 presidential election polls.
Question: Evaluate the scientific validity of the claim that a poll with a sample size of millions of people is guaranteed to be more accurate than a poll with a sample size of a few thousand. Support your evaluation using the outcome of the 1936 presidential election polls.
Sample answer: This claim is scientifically invalid because large sample sizes cannot compensate for systemic selection bias. In the 1936 election, the Literary Digest polled millions of people but failed due to a biased, wealthy sample, whereas George Gallup accurately predicted the landslide victory using a much smaller, scientifically representative sample.
Key points:
- Evaluate the claim as scientifically invalid.
- Explain that large sample size does not correct for selection bias.
- Use the 1936 Literary Digest poll failure and Gallup's success as supporting evidence.
Rubric: The response must evaluate the claim as invalid, explain that sample size does not fix selection bias, and reference the 1936 Literary Digest failure versus Gallup's smaller, scientific sample success.
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Research Methods in Psychology - 4th American Edition @ KPU
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Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan
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Evaluate the scientific validity of the claim that a poll with a sample size of millions of people is guaranteed to be more accurate than a poll with a sample size of a few thousand. Support your evaluation using the outcome of the 1936 presidential election polls.