Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan

George Gallup’s 1936 presidential election prediction is a landmark case in survey research. Why did Gallup’s poll produce a more accurate result than the Literary Digest poll, despite Gallup using a significantly smaller sample size?

Match each of George Gallup's specific methodological choices from the 1936 election prediction to the psychological research principle it best demonstrates.

Arrange the steps George Gallup followed during the 1936 election cycle to reflect the logical progression of his scientific challenge to traditional straw polling methods.

Based on the methodological outcomes of the 1936 presidential election, it is a scientifically sound evaluation to conclude that a large sample size is an effective substitute for a representative sampling methodology.

Prior to the 1936 election, what action did George Gallup take to publicly challenge the 'Literary Digest' poll?

George Gallup’s 1936 election prediction demonstrated that utilizing scientific sampling principles allows a researcher to accurately identify why a massive, non-scientific poll will fail before the results are even known.

In the 1936 U.S. presidential election, pollster _____ successfully predicted Franklin Roosevelt's landslide victory by using scientific survey methods with much smaller samples than his competitors.