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Explain why Dr. Aris's claim of having 'proven' her theory is scientifically premature. Identify the potential flaws in her reasoning and justify why she must describe her theory as supported rather than proven, based on the concepts of Type I error, alternative explanations, and future tests.
Case context: Dr. Aris is testing a new memory-enhancing drug. She hypothesizes that participants taking the drug will recall more words on a test than those taking a placebo. After running the experiment, she finds a statistically significant difference in favor of the drug. Excited, Dr. Aris drafts a manuscript stating that this positive outcome definitively proves her theory of biochemical memory enhancement.
Question: Explain why Dr. Aris's claim of having 'proven' her theory is scientifically premature. Identify the potential flaws in her reasoning and justify why she must describe her theory as supported rather than proven, based on the concepts of Type I error, alternative explanations, and future tests.
Sample answer: Dr. Aris cannot claim her theory is proven. First, her positive finding could be a Type I error, meaning she observed a significant difference by chance when there is no true effect. Second, other theories could explain the identical outcome, such as participant expectancies or placebo effects. Third, future tests of her hypothesis or related hypotheses might produce disconfirming evidence. Therefore, her theory is supported, not proven.
Key points:
- The drug study outcome could represent a Type I error.
- Other plausible theories could predict the identical outcome.
- Future trials or tests could produce disconfirming evidence.
Rubric: Evaluation should demonstrate comprehension of the three reasons: the student must explain how a Type I error applies to Dr. Aris's result, how other plausible theories could explain the drug's effect, and how future tests could disconfirm her theory.
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Research Methods in Psychology - 4th American Edition @ KPU
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