Kahneman and Tversky in 1971, conducted a study to assess the intuitive understanding of sampling affects among statisticians. After asking the statisticians:
- There are two hospitals, one large and one small. 60% of the babies born in one of the hospitals on a specific day happened to be a boy. Which hospital was it likely to be?

During a causal conversation, most statisticians answered wrong and chose the large hospital. This is despite the fact a basic idea in statistics is that small sample sizes are likely to be variable. The context the idea was expressed in caused errors among "experts" in the discipline.

Domain specificity and intuitive understanding of sampling effects

Even statistical experts do not recognize if a sampling effects played a large role in an outcome, when using their intuition.

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

- Priming effect (and anchoring)

- Halo effect

- Sampling effect

- Availability heuristic

- Representative heuristic

Effects that arise from system 1 activity

The associative mechanisms in the brain (system 1) seek causes to explain and rationalize events. This is part of the reason why we are bad intuitive statisticians: statistics often deals in probabilities - relating what did happen to what could've happened.

Psychology of Cause and Change

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Nota, 2013.

Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

Intuitive understanding of sampling effects

When a sensory experience (hearing a word/phrase, or seeing a picture), triggers an associational response that effects your decision making afterwards. The presentation of some stimuli affects someones response to the presentation of a following one.

Priming effect

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where individuals make decisions based on information that is most easily recalled, such as a recent experience or a vivid example. This reliance on readily available information can lead to flawed judgments, as the most accessible information is not always the most representative or accurate for making a sound decision.

Availability Heuristic

The Halo Effect is a cognitive bias where an individual's overall impression of a person influences subsequent judgments about their specific character traits. For example, a generally positive perception can lead to the assumption that the person also possesses other desirable qualities, such as good morals or intelligence, without any direct evidence.

Halo Effect

They are base rates framed in a way that changes your view about how the case at hand came to be.

Causal base rates

Statistical results that have accompanying causal interpretations have a stronger effect on our thinking  than non-causal information. However even information that is framed causally can't overcome personal beliefs reinforced by experience

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