Even statistical experts do not recognize if a sampling effects played a large role in an outcome, when using their intuition.

Intuitive understanding of sampling effects

When a sensory experience (hearing a word/phrase, or seeing a picture), triggers an associational response that effects your decision making afterwards. The presentation of some stimuli affects someones response to the presentation of a following one.

Priming effect

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where individuals make decisions based on information that is most easily recalled, such as a recent experience or a vivid example. This reliance on readily available information can lead to flawed judgments, as the most accessible information is not always the most representative or accurate for making a sound decision.

Availability Heuristic

The Halo Effect is a cognitive bias where an individual's overall impression of a person influences subsequent judgments about their specific character traits. For example, a generally positive perception can lead to the assumption that the person also possesses other desirable qualities, such as good morals or intelligence, without any direct evidence.

Halo Effect

- Priming effect (and anchoring)

- Halo effect

- Sampling effect

- Availability heuristic

- Representative heuristic

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

The automatic system used in cognition. Generates: feelings, intuitions, impressions and intentions.

System 1 

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Nota, 2013.

Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

To maintain and update models of our subjective worlds

Main function of system 1

Understanding a statement begins with pondering the ramifications if it were to be true - what would it mean if it were true. This initial attempt to believe is an action of system 1.  System 1 is "bias" to believe.

Believing

A state of expending considerable cognitive effort over a long period of time without having to exert will power. Known as an "Optimal experience". It is a state of "effortless concentration, so deep they lose their sense of time, of themselves and their problems"

flow

System 1 is highly adept at creating a comprehensive story based on the information available to it - it only represents activated ideas. The quality and amount of data is irrelevant, all that matters to system 1 is how coherent the story is.

What you see is all there is (WYSIATI)

- operates automatically with no sense of voluntary control
- can be programmed by system 2 to mobilize attention to a particular pattern (search)
- executes skilled responses and intuitions after adequate training
- links a sense of cognitive ease to illusions of truth, and pleasant feelings
- distinguishes between surprising and normal
- exaggerates emotional consistency (halo effect) 
- focuses on existing evidence, ignores absent evidence (WYSIATI)
- generates a limited set of basic assessments

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Characteristics of system 1 

Effects that arise from system 1 activity

The associative mechanisms in the brain (system 1) seek causes to explain and rationalize events. This is part of the reason why we are bad intuitive statisticians: statistics often deals in probabilities - relating what did happen to what could've happened.

Psychology of Cause and Change

People unconsciously use knowledge about the world when making judgments. Tacit knowledge us usually considered procedural ("knowing how" not "knowing what") and resembles wisdom.

Tacit knowledge

Processing that happens:
- Without intention (unconscious, implicit)
- Low cost of cognitive resources

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